The recent update (released January 20, 2026, and using files as of November 30, 2025) of the application inventories published by the IRCC indicates that the total backlog is virtually flat at slightly more than 1.0 million cases.
The pressure has been brought further into permanent residence- particularly Express Entry and Express Entry-based PNP streams.
The total number of applications that IRCC is dealing with stands at 2,130,700 in citizenship, permanent residence, and temporary residence.
Among these 1,005,800 are out of service standards (the backlog) which translates to approximately 47.2% of the total inventory.
The backlog did not change significantly as compared to the backlog reported previously (31 October 2025), though category-level movement makes sense.
Snapshot: October 31 vs November 30
| Processing breakdown | Nov 30, 2025 | Oct 31, 2025 | Month-On-Month Change |
| Inventory | 2,130,700 | 2,182,200 | -51,500 |
| Backlog | 1,005,800 | 1,006,800 | -1,000 |
| Within service standards | 1,124,900 | 1,175,500 | -50,600 |
| Backlog % | 47.2% | 46.1% | 1.1% |
IRCC flags these datasets as approximate, with privacy-driven rounding and suppression in certain tables.
Category-by-category: where the backlog is moving
What stands out in November is a classic “offset” pattern: temporary residence improves, but permanent residence worsens.
Permanent residence is now the main pressure point
IRCC had 941,600 permanent residence applications in inventory as of November 30, 2025.
Among these there were 515,000 backlogged and 426, 600 within service standards.
PR inventory increased (928,800 – 941,600) and PR backlog increased rapidly (501,300 – 515,000) compared to the data of October 31 backlog.
| Processing breakdown | Nov 30, 2025 | Oct 31, 2025 | Month-on-month change |
| Inventory | 942,000 | 999,100 | -57,100 |
| Backlog | 434,400 | 450,700 | -16,300 |
| Within service standards | 507,600 | 548,500 | -40,900 |
| Backlog % | 46.1% | 45.1% | 1.0% |
This is congruent with the program-level backlog trend on January 20, 2026:
- Express Entry backlog climbed from 27% in October 2025 to 32% in November 2025.
- Express Entry–aligned PNP backlog rose from 51% in October 2025 to 53% in November 2025.
- Family sponsorship (spouses/partners/children outside Quebec) held at 20% in October and November 2025.
The net message: PR workload at IRCC is increasing despite declining system inventory and a growing share of the backlog is becoming most evident in high-volume economic channels.
Or it may be due to the fact that IRCC already has sufficient permanent residency applications being handled to satisfy the number of annual targets of immigration levels plan of 2026.
Temporary residence is improving, but visitor visas remain heavily backlogged
According to IRCC, 942,000 applications for temporary residence were in inventory as of November 30 (as compared to 999,100 at the end of October).
| Processing breakdown | Nov 30, 2025 | Oct 31, 2025 | Month-on-month change |
| Inventory | 942,000 | 999,100 | -57,100 |
| Backlog | 434,400 | 450,700 | -16,300 |
| Within service standards | 507,600 | 548,500 | -40,900 |
| Backlog % | 46.1% | 45.1% | 1.0% |
Within temporary residence:
- 434,400 were backlogged and 507,600 were within standards.
- Study permit backlog improved materially, falling from 41% in October 2025 to 36% in November 2025.
- Work permit backlog eased slightly from 50% in October 2025 to 49% in November 2025.
- Visitor visa backlog stayed stuck at 57% (third month in a row, per the summary of the same IRCC dataset).
One of them is this, permits to study are the most obvious month-over-month gain in November because Canada is restricting the inflow of international students, and visitor visas are the most chronically congested category of temporary entry, perhaps because of the FIFA 2026 world cup at present.
Citizenship is rising again
On November 30, IRCC had 247,100 applications in inventory to grant citizenship, of which 56,400 were backlogged and 190,700 were standard.
| Processing breakdown | Nov 30, 2025 | Oct 31, 2025 | Change |
| Inventory | 247,100 | 254,300 | -7,200 |
| Backlog | 56,400 | 54,800 | 1,600 |
| Within service standards | 190,700 | 199,500 | -8,800 |
| Backlog % | 22.8% | 21.5% | 1.3% |
That represents:
- A higher backlog share (about 23%) than earlier in 2025, and
- An increase from October’s backlog level in your referenced INC News report (54,800 → 56,400).
The backlog trend of IRCC itself indicates that in October 2025, the citizenship grant backlog will stand at 22% and November 2025 will be 23%.
The hidden driver: fewer new students and workers are entering the system
The recent statistics by IRCC indicate a sharp decrease in the number of newcomers as the number of new international students and workers is capped and it is possible to explain why some of the temporary residence is becoming chilly despite the mounting PR pressure.
Key points from the IRCC:
- Total new student + worker arrivals between January and November 2025 were 52% lower than the same period in 2024 (down 334,845).
- New student arrivals were 60% lower over the same period.
- New worker arrivals were 47% lower over the same period.
Despite the drop of arrivals, the in-Canada stock is huge:
- People holding only a study permit: 476,330 in Canada as of November 30, 2025.
- People holding only a work permit: 1,491,500 in Canada as of November 30, 2025.
This is the repositioning that IRCC is foreshadowing: diminish new temporary inflows and put more emphasis on in-Canada transitions to permanent residence- also a policy which is among the factors that contribute to the sharpening of PR workload already when temporary intake is decelerating.
Asylum claims are trending down, easing one source of system pressure
The trends of asylum in IRCC imply decreasing in various channels:
- IRCC states 33% fewer people submitted an asylum claim between January 1 and November 30, 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
- Claims tied to TRV holders: IRCC reports a 55% drop in November 2025 compared with the same time last year.
- Crossings between ports of entry: IRCC cites a reduction from an average of 165 people per day (March 2023) to now 13 people per day.
In the monthly table, the national total also decreases by 1,340 in a month as the number of 9,145 in October of 2025 would decrease to 7,805 in November of 2025.
Although asylum processing lies within a different operational lane as Express Entry or study permits, the reduced number of claims places little strain on some intake, eligibility, and downstream processing assets–particularly when paired with a more stringent scrutiny of TRV and changes in border policy identified by IRCC.
What the comparison with the previous data tells you
The moment of a backlog surge was set by framing the data of IRCC on December 16 (representing data of October 31, 2025) so that the system was backlogged by more than 1 million files.
| Program (backlog rate) | Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | Change |
| Express Entry | 32% | 27% | 5% |
| PNP (Express Entry aligned) | 53% | 51% | 2% |
| Family sponsorship (spouses/partners/children outside Quebec) | 20% | 20% | No change |
| Study permits | 36% | 41% | -5% |
| Work permits (excluding extensions) | 49% | 50% | -1% |
| Temporary resident visas (TRV) | 57% | 57% | No change |
The newest update confirms that:
- The backlog level is still effectively “over 1 million” (1,005,800).
- But the story is now composition, not just size:
- Temporary residence backlog is shrinking month-over-month.
- Permanent residence backlog is rising and is now the most important constraint—especially in Express Entry and PNP-aligned streams where backlog percentages are climbing.
- Citizenship backlog continues its slow upward drift (22% → 23%).
That is, the system is not clearing the backlog, but repositioning the backlog.
What is this telling the immigration applicants at this point in time?
That is, the system is not clearing the backlog, rather it is relocating the location of the backlog.
What does this mean for immigration applicants right now?
- If you are in Express Entry or an Express Entry–aligned PNP stream, expect more variability in processing times and more sensitivity to IRCC’s internal prioritization, because backlog shares are rising (32% and 53% respectively as of November 2025).
- If you are filing (or renewing) a study permit, the backlog trend improved in November (41% → 36%), which is typically a leading indicator before the processing times stabilize.
- If you are applying for a visitor visa, the backlog is still unusually elevated at 57%, and it has not improved for months in the published snapshot.
- If you are tracking “Canada’s immigration slowdown,” the data supports a nuanced view: new student and worker arrivals are down sharply, but PR inventories are still climbing—consistent with a strategy that shifts selection toward people already in Canada.
The most valuable lesson of the recent updates of the open-data of IRCC is that the number of the immigration backlog in Canada ceases to be a single headline figure- it is a traveling pressure map.
The data of November indicates that temporary residence is beginning to suffer, asylum claims have a downward trend, and permanent residence is taking much of the weight, with Express Entry and PNP-oriented streams being the most indicative of the risks.
This means that by early 2026 with current trends, the general discussion is likely to change to no longer ask, Is the backlog over 1 million? to What programs have the backlog–and who is waiting longer on account of it?